1-18-2012 Guru Doc Has the RV occurred or has it not?

1-18-2012  Guru Doc
Could the RV be announced at "any moment"?

_Has the RV occurred or has it not?  The CBI did change the exchange rate from 1170 to 1166 on Thursday. This is a change from the program rate but hardly the ultimate RV value.  The CBI is continuing to remove dinar from circulation.  There are numerous articles stating that the Iraqi citizens prefer USD. As one article stated even the butcher is dealing in USD.  This easily could be part of the master plan to remove as much dinar as possible before the true RV.  If we think about it its much cheaper for the CBI to remove dinar at 1166 or 1170 per dollar than 1 dinar per dollar.  Moving the exchange to 1166 may entice a few more citizens to cash in.  After all from the citizens' perspective they now can get a few more dollars for their dinar. It would not surprise us to see a few more minor movements in the exchange rate by the CBI over the next several weeks.  Our guess to the "official" explanation is it reflects the overall weakening USD or it is being tested by allowing it to float in the market.


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_We know the ultimate goal is dedollarization and this will occur around $1.13.  We also know several laws need to be passed to support the RV. This point was very clear by a published article on Monday which stated that there would be no currency reform until laws dealing with private debt post reform were enacted.  We also know the budget and HCl need passing.  This morning the news indicated the draft HCl was agreed to but passage was several weeks away. We are extremely encouraged by these events but maintain the true RV is still weeks away.  As we continue to point out we need Parliament passing key laws. There is absolutely no confirmed basis for the RV to be announced at "any moment" or than pure speculation.  We report, you decide.

Doc