1-23-2012 Guru Doc Hints To CBI's Strategy Revealed |
More great hints as to the CBI's strategy were revealed late last week. One article was very forth coming and said the target exchange rate in the near term will be 1150. What is very interesting is the fact that they are limited to a 2.5% change over 90 days due to current sanctions. A 2.5% change would put the rate at 1140. Another article suggested a target of a 3.4% change which would put the rate around 1130. While we believe this was a typo (should have been 0.34% to reflect the 1166 rate), we are very excited that it appears the CBI has begun it march toward its stated ultimate RV rate of $1 to $1.3. Look for changes in the rate toward 1150 in the short term until the CBI's hands are untied.
The problem right now is that the CBI is constrained as to how fast it can move the rate due to chapter 7 and the lack of passed laws to support the ultimate RV value. Several articles gave an indication as to timing. The budget HAS NOT been approved and it was indicated it could be a month before it was. Erbil was also reported as being very close with a vote in Parliament 2-3 weeks away. The only reported timing for chapter 7 by the UNSC is June. The great news is all these issues are progressing and seem to have priority. Could they all resolve themselves this week - of course ! Will it happen this week - not probably given the past history of Parliament. We maintain that the minimum time for resolution of these issues is mid to late February. We report, you decide.
The problem right now is that the CBI is constrained as to how fast it can move the rate due to chapter 7 and the lack of passed laws to support the ultimate RV value. Several articles gave an indication as to timing. The budget HAS NOT been approved and it was indicated it could be a month before it was. Erbil was also reported as being very close with a vote in Parliament 2-3 weeks away. The only reported timing for chapter 7 by the UNSC is June. The great news is all these issues are progressing and seem to have priority. Could they all resolve themselves this week - of course ! Will it happen this week - not probably given the past history of Parliament. We maintain that the minimum time for resolution of these issues is mid to late February. We report, you decide.
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