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9-1-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday & BGG THIS IS A HUGE HUGE MEETING -- IT IS FOR THE RELEASE OF THE REALITY OF IRAQ`S ECONOMY AND THEY ARE SAYING IT IS THIS PHASE SO OF COURSE WE HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTION BUT WITH ALL ELSE WE HAVE SEEN ---- HUGE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED. THEY ARE SAYING THE CHANGES IN THE SPENDING FIGURES ARE URGENT TO BE CHANGED AND HAD NOT BEEN DONE IN THE PREVIOUS YEARS BECAUSE THE REFORMS WERE NOT DONE. [NOW THEY CAN MAKE THE MONETARY CHANGE WE ARE LOOKING FOR.] I AGREE. [post 2 of 2]
9-1-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday & BGG this "seminar (aka - meeting)" took place on Skype - whatever this meeting was really about was obviously so urgent they couldn't wait to meet in person. They had to meet on Skype. THEY HAD THEIR OFFICIALS PRESENT IT APPEARS AND OTHERS ON SKYPE. "...to develop the banking reality in Iraq." sounds very interesting... IMHO. ECONOMIC REALITY IS WHAT WE ARE WAITING FOR AND THIS IS A HUGE MEETING. THEY ARE SAYING THE MARKET HAS TO OPEN FOR IRAQ -- THEY NO LONGER CAN STAY CONTAINED. This type of news coupled with the recent variance in the currency auctions may be HUGE... [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: "Rafidain Bank is seeking to open a branch in London after the settlement of the debt incurred by him" Certainly getting the banking system ready is significant to the flow of capital once the CBI makes the move. But don't confuse this success with what still needs to be done...laws, a GOI and some sort of success against these terrorists in Iraq. Once they accomplish that, we will be very close.
8-31-2014 Intel Guru EXOGEN Article quote: "revealed an MP for the coalition of state law Ibtisam al-Hilali, Saturday, that the next session of Parliament will be decisive and final adoption of the budget to the public in 2014."
8-31-2014 Intel Guru SteveI I have a few contacts over there that have indicated that some of the big companies that left Iraq and put their projects on hold due to lack of payments, are now coming back and ready to resume their work. What they are share with me is that they have been ensured payment in coming weeks or days now and they are ready to start up again. To me this is huge as they know the budget will get done and in a very speedy fashion.
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Stryker We are seeing a major change in Iraq and it is all developing right in front of our eyes. From Iraqi forces breaking through the ISIS lines and regaining a town to the Iraqi politicians working around the clock in formation of a NEW Iraqi Government changes are here. Quote: "this week will see the announcement the government formation after the arrival of the talks between the National Alliance and the Kurdish blocs to advanced stages." September 11th is the formation deadline itself according to the Iraqi constitution but if they can announce it this week they will have one more week to vote confidence in Abadi and all his cabinet members.
8-31-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 This time around there are several reports of people celebrating in the streets in many different areas as ISIL is being extracted...Reports that Maliki and his son have moved cars, furniture and generators through the back gate as they vacate the green zone...Reports the Kurds have submitted their list of ministers...Reports the GOI will be introduced Tuesday to Parliament...Reports the Budget is to be voted on... In other words, all the news is positively overwhelming!
8-31-2014 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG I'm not sure they could hold the value down long enough to do them any good. For instance - if they started out at a dime... (purely hypothetical) - there would be a mad rush initially. Then the value would start to rise once investors figured out what was going on...this rise has been predicted by some well respected economists...it may take as little as 30 days. I don't think they would get much off the street that quickly. It would take a while just to get to a bank, get verified, get exchanged - etc, etc, etc... a true float would wind up at a "reality rate" so quickly I don't know they would get enough off the street to risk the down side later.
8-31-2014 Intel Guru Frank26 Every 48 hours they tell You they will ANNOUNCE A FORMED GOI...Because it has been...Yet they do not. May I suggest to believe them on the 8th.
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [We know the Iraqi dinar is under a managed float regime In a float The official exchange rate changes with the Buying and selling of the dinar by the central bank which I turn establishes and maintains the exchange rate. Do ya see a way for them to drive up the market rate by setting the dinars rate higher at the banks in Iraq before the official exchange rate is changed?] it sounds like you are describing a way for the CBI to "manipulate" the rate... in which case I have to emphatically say YES - they definitely have the ability to do so! And in my opinion, they WILL do so...to their benefit and also ours.
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar Article: "Law: The next meeting will witness the end the dilemma of the general budget" [imo budget comes after the new goi is sworn in....I sure as heck can't see them voting it off before and having those monies go to M's corrupt cronies he has in all the current positions.] they dismissed Maliki's ministers two weeks ago and these ministries are without certain Maliki Ministers, but are being run by their second or third in command until the new ministers come in. The house cleaning has mostly been done.
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: "Calls for the central ministries to work the new system of payments" Great news for sure as the CBI activates the electronic banking system throughout Iraq. When you look at the bigger picture, this is sooo important. The CBI wants to get the country banking system up to par with the world. Electronic banking/settlements etc is significant to investor confidence and will go a long way towards inviting investment capital into Iraq. As soon as they decide to go to Article VIII and a new Exchange Regime Iraq should really take off. No doubt in my mind and as a result the currency should as well.
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Adam Montana [just what IS the HCL?] HCL is...the "Hydro Carbon Law". It is the key to letting Iraq work as a functioning business, and until it is passed there will continue to be struggles with the monies that come in and out of Iraq. Basically, once the HCL is in place... game on!
8-31-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday THE BUDGET IS NOW JUST WAITING ON THE VOTE WHEN THEY MEET I BELIEVE IT SEPT 2ND. [do you feel they vote on the pm and the government Tuesday?] ABADI IS STATING HE WILL HAVE ALL THE NAMES EARLIER THAN THE 9TH FORMATION DATE BUT I DONT KNOW IF IT IS TUESDAY. I KNOW THEY HAVE STATED ALOT IS GOING ON TUESDAY AND...AND HAVE ALOT OF PRESSURE TO FORM NOW. GOV BEING FORMED - BUDGET READY FOR VOTE -- AND US ASKING THEM TO HURRY AND FORM...VERY ENCOURAGING.
Below are the latest guru updates from late last night and yesterday...be sure to check them out before you leave...
8-30-2014 Intel Guru Frank26 Once they announce the formation of a full GOI ...Things will happen exceedingly FAST!!
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru tlm724 Article: "Calls for the central ministries to work the new system of payments" Quote: "said Bank to clarify that this system is one of the advanced systems dependent and electronic means of payment and provide speed, accuracy and security in the transfer of money..." with this system and the market price moving downward we can take it...as a sign of compliance in the very near future! the 2% threshold for the IMF is within sight. they must reach that price in order to go forward with the currency reform! 1166 x 2% is around 23 pips so a little further and they and us as well, will be golden...and as a side note this system will allow for full accountability of tariff funds received which we know is part of the WTO. Despite it all Iraq marches on!
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Blueyesinlevis Anyone holding the triple zero notes will be very happy...but they are NOT going to be exchanging 10 million IQD for new physical Lower Denoms. The release of the smalls are going to be...much less a part of this than we once thought. Certainly only in country...they are not going to be widely available for us. The CBI simply is not going to print a lot of the smalls. They want to go CASHLESS...and this is the golden opportunity to become the most CASHLESS society on the globe. The IMF and PTB love this idea...I am sure...JMHO. [post 2 of 2]
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Blueyesinlevis Article: "CBI calls for ministries to work the new system of payments" Digital money...smart cards...modern banking...If most citizens are broke....and they all get DIGITAL payments of HCL money...in essence...they will ALL be FORCED to go to the bank and start using their smart cards. Vendeors will be FORCED to accept the smart cards. In one fell swoop...modern, digitial banking will be FORCED upon them. The underground CASH economy will suffer...and the legal, above boards economy will instantly flourish. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Chattels Jaafari’s statement said the goal was to form a new government “within the legal timeframe,” but didn’t specify a deadline. While legal mandates aren’t always respected in Iraq, the prime minister by law must form a cabinet within 30 days of his nomination, giving Abadi until Sept. 11 to put together a government. Abadi said last week that the negotiations were positive and that he was eager to “form an inclusive government.” the reality is that the news is always mixed, but on balance there is progress and what you read about failed negotiations are just today's event and part of the posturing and process. i actually consider myself positive and i just try to manage short term expectations to reduce disappointment.
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Blueyesinlevis Abadi, Hakim, Joubari, Masum... they are all doing it by the book...step by step...line by line...day by day. Love that it is not "Power Sharing" between 2 ego maniacs...but a broad based, constitutional, well designed, specific, detailed, inclusive, apparently binding roadmap. Very encouraging.
8-30-2013 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 The CBI Board of Directors are the major decision makers in regards to revaluation. If you follow the CBI board you will find many of these decision makers come from Trade Bank...And if you follow Trade Bank you find that JP Morgan is overseeing operations...And if you follow JP Morgan you find that they are directly connected to the UST in regards to currency distribution. The UST has a division called the ESF (exchange stabilization fund). This think tank basically is the architect of world economies in regards to exchange rates etc. If what we are speculating on becoming reality, then you can bet your last dollar the ESF...UST is a large part of making that reality happen.
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article: "Central Bank being a set of enhancements to the currency to protect them from fraud" This article above clearly says they want to start releasing the new 10,000 notes by the end of the month (August)... Do you really think some overnight RV is about to happen when they have not even replaced the existing currency in circulation that they just spend millions of dollars reprinting to help strengthen monetary policy within Iraq? Of course not. ...I am a realist and the fact is we must continue to wait for the other pieces to be in place before they can open the banking system to the world.
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday the huge point with the last two reports we have seen is that abadi has stated that with the announcement of the gov formation comes the economic reform entirely.
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Chattels [when does government get in place? Is this still delayed?] the constitutional " deadline " was and is September 9/10, depending upon which article you read/believe, there has been no change or delay with such. the PM - designate, the ministers and the ministerial program (government framework, National Paper, etc.) is voted upon by the Parliament all at once...it should be done by the 9th, is my thinking, it seems very important to all that the constitutional deadline be honored at a minimum.
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday THE BUDGET IS SUPPOSED TO BE APPROVED WITH THE HCL ARTICLE 140 AND THE FEDERATION COUNCIL AT THE SAME TIME ACCORDING TO REPORTS BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTION TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
8-30-2014 Intel Guru SteveI This was on Iraqi TV and we want to share. To clear up the confusion, here is the latest facts: Two of the ministers are being contested by a representative from Najaf and wants them replaced. The minister of health and the minister of utilities. The President of Parliament is giving them two more days to be replaced. Then on September 2, the official list of ministers will be released to the media and the people. Then on September 3, the Prime Minister and all his ministers will be sworn in. The ministers will officially start their jobs September 7. The budget is supposed to be brought up before Parliament after September 3. It could be September 4th or 5th or any day after that.
8-30-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar Some Ministers may be in dispute but those will be resolved. The platform is a series of pre-agreed solutions to big issues (promises in writing) with known outcomes such as the resolution of the HCL and its agreements and article 140 and its resolution. That will guarantee the Kurds and the Sunni's will get what they want and will support this government. They can't get everything done all at once and some things they can't even start until there is a new COM in place which means a seated government. This agreement in writing is the roadmap that they have all promised to follow. Everyone will sign it once the negotiations are done. Once the agreement is done they will register it with the court. It provides that warm fuzzy for everyone including the CBI and removes the element of trust. It also guaranties that the vote will be in favor of the government of Abadi. If this document is signed sealed and delivered and all parties feel good about it, the CBI will figure the voting in of the government is a slam dunk even if it takes a little more time do to some disqualifications of submitted Ministers. The CBI needs to get going now. [reference Tlar's post 8-29-2014]
8-29-2014 Newshound Guru Millionday ABADI HAS ALWAYS STATED THAT HIS GREATEST IMPORTANCE IS TO APPLY THE POWER SHARING GOV. HE HAS UNTIL THE 9TH AND HAS MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE WILL NOT TAKE THAT LONG. HE IS SAYING THAT WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENTS OF THE MINISTERS AND FULFILLED GOV ALSO THEY WILL RELEASE THE ECONOMIC REFORMS AND ALL OTHER REFORMS AS WELL. THE BANKING REFORM AND ENTRY TO THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET WILL REQUIRE A NEW RATE OR A REALITY RATE FOR TRADE...VERY EXCITING TIME TO SAY THE LEAST.
8-29-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 [can u share your opinion on how close u think we are?] I was told in July...that Aug 22nd would be the date of interest regarding financial change... I never expected to see a RV mid month and always thought it would more likely start at the beginning of a month...so I wait in anticipation for 9/2.
8-29-2014 Intel Guru TNT Tony [via Adept1] In Iraq they do things in the dark of night, so that they are not public, so that people cannot anticipate everything in the government or the currency. Many agreements have been made, and they will come out at the same time or within 24 hours of each other. Nobody thinks they actually spent all night voting on all this stuff. They are just saving it for the opportune time just before or after the RV. This is all about Iraq, the announcements they made today and throughout the weekend, they and we are expecting great changes. Monday is a holiday, and Tuesday will be a new beginning.
8-29-2014 Newshound/Intel Guru BGG I got the text from Poppy that he was back in ICU. Mostly for observation. He should be out tomorrow. Let's just keep him in prayer for speedy recovery...
8-29-2014 Intel Guru DC [via Adept1] Bottom line is Iraq looks phenomenal. The full GOI was formally seated and announced yesterday evening in the 11 oClock news, at the mosques and other places. Everyone is getting really happy. There are plans throughout the country and the next question is “where is our RV?” I think it’s pretty close behind it, with plans being executed as we speak to prepare for the change in rate RIGHT NOW. The expectation is that the RV is coming shortly...with the US and the world ready to handle exchanges.
8-29-2014 Intel/Newshound Guru tman23 A US Court on Monday upheld a request to the Kurdistan Regional Government to cancel the request by the Government of Iraq to US authorities detain Kurdish oil shipment. But the Court awarded Baghdad ten days to resubmit the request for booking...(The 10 day period for Baghdad to submit an appeal to the courts ends on Sept 3rd...And at which time there will be a new minister of oil for Iraq...More coincidental timing ? I think not ! )
8-29-2014 Newshound/Intel Guru Arthur In the unlikely case the Council of Ministers does not win the vote of confidence, the President of the Republic Foad Masoum will charge another nominee to form the Council of Ministers within fifteen days in case the Council of Ministers, but as far as we know as of now, we have every indication that he will get the vote of confidence from an absolute majority of the COR within the deadline thus completing the formation of the new Iraqi government. [post 2 of 2]
8-29-2014 Newshound/Intel Guru Arthur So to officially clarify the Iraqi government formation process as stated in their constitution, Prime Minister-designate Haider al-Abadi will present the names of his members of the Council of Ministers and the ministerial program sometime between now and the constitutional deadline of 9/11 to the Council of Representatives. He is deemed to have gained its confidence upon the approval, by an absolute majority of the Council of Representatives, of the individual Ministers and the ministerial program. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]
8-29-2014 Newshound Guru Aggiedad77 Article: "Interim Commission for approving the budget confirms that the law is still in parliament and did not send it to the government" What was it maybe a week ago we heard news that the budget had been sent back to the government...to Maliki's government...let's get real...but now today we read that the Parliament has had the budget all along...IMO...the Parliament is probably doing a good thing...stalling on the budget at this point...waiting to get the new government seated...then they will present to the new GOI what they believe is a workable 2014 for what is left of the year...this has been formulated and is ready for presentation...they just want it put before the correct GOI...one that has been been corrupted by years of bad leadership.
8-29-2014 Intel Guru EXOGEN Erbil announces it has become free to export oil to the United States. THIS IS ULTRA MEGA GIGANTIC! DO YOU SMELL OIL CREDITS?
8-29-2014 Intel Guru Tlar Quote: "So as long as these documents are signed and they are registrared with the courts, the CBI will consider the government formed and the plan is to pull the trigger before our Tuesday (their Monday night)." Make sure you understand that if for some reason these documents do not get signed and they can't come to agreement, that may substantially change the plan. I don't anticipate a problem but who knows, "this is Iraq".
8-29-2014 Intel Guru TerryK IM STILL HEARING WE ARE GOING TO SEE THIS BETWEEN NOW AND THE 31ST. 2.21 AND 8.16 IS WHAT IM GETTING. [Reference TerryK's post dated 8-26-2014 regarding rates.]
8-29-2014 Newshound Guru tlm724 Article: "Paradise negotiating alliance: the formation of the government will be completed during the next 48 hours" the formation of the government will be completed during the next 48 hours *hallelujah*
8-29-2014 Newshound Guru Kaperoni Article quote: "the work of the national committees to complete their work before the end of the constitutional term of 10 days." Looks like by end of next week they should be close to being sworn in. As well, the new Finance/Economic committees will be formed next Tuesday...
8-29-2014 Intel Guru TD Abadi a PHD and having an engineering background is very calculating in his approach and will gel the state, revitalize the economic reform programs and eventually help all Iraqi's with a better standard of living. All in due time and my contact indicates all this will play out over many months to come. But at least they have hope and determination. The BIG WRENCH in all this is indeed ISIS and the security situation. Abadi, Turki and others will move in a responsible fashion as the dust settles BUT THIS IS A SLOW MOTION PICTURE OCCURRING IN REAL TIME. [post 2 of 2]
8-29-2014 Intel Guru TD Comments to share from my Kurdish friend today: While there is considerable progress being made in formation of a new government it is NOT yet complete. It should by all indications be named (cabinet members) few days before the deadline. Then Parliament must vote and approve everyone and at this time getting the (moderate) Sunnis on board with all remains incomplete. Masum is reaching out daily to Sunni leaders to get on board. The alternative of an ISIS state for moderate Sunnis is frightening so chances look good but the Sunnis really want a BIG PART OF THE ACTION. [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]